Novo Nordisk A/S

Overview

An investor-focused, William J. O’Neil (CAN SLIM) style analysis of Novo Nordisk A/S (NVO), integrating structured financials and recent reports to assess fundamentals, competitive position, price/volume action, and risk-reward for a potential buy/sell/hold decision.

Financial and Business Overview

Novo Nordisk is a global leader in diabetes and obesity care with a GLP-1-centric portfolio (Ozempic for T2D, Wegovy for obesity, oral semaglutide/Rybelsus), plus insulin and select rare disease assets. As of the latest structured data, shares trade at $49.35 (USD), market cap ~$219.3B, trailing P/E ~13.6x and forward P/E ~12.1x, EPS TTM $3.62 and forward EPS $4.07. 9M’25 results: sales +12% in DKK (+15% CER) and operating profit +5% DKK (+10% CER), with underlying OP up ~+16% DKK excluding ~DKK 9B restructuring charges. Management narrowed FY’25 guidance to +8–11% sales growth and +4–7% OP growth (CER) amid intensified competition, pricing pressure, U.S. compounding headwinds, and restructuring to refocus on diabetes/obesity and improve agility. Free cash flow for 9M’25 was DKK 63.9B; the company announced ~9,000 position reductions targeting ~DKK 8B in annual savings by end-2026. Note: the reported trailing dividend yield appears unusually high due to special payments and currency/ADR mechanics; buybacks have been paused during a high-investment period. Sources: company Q3/9M’25 updates and transcript.

Market Position & Competitive Advantages

Novo’s durable moat stems from: (1) scientific leadership in GLP-1s (semaglutide family) across T2D, obesity, and cardiometabolic comorbidities; (2) global manufacturing capacity and capex expansion; (3) an advancing pipeline (Wegovy pill under review; indications like MASH approved; CagriSema and amycretin in development); and (4) deep commercial infrastructure and payer relationships. However, Eli Lilly’s tirzepatide (Mounjaro/Zepbound) now leads U.S. obesity starts and is growing faster, with efficacy and access advantages. Management reset strategy and governance (CEO transition, board overhaul) to accelerate decision-making, push direct-to-consumer/cash channels, expand telehealth partnerships, and re-allocate capital to core assets. Regulatory and pricing dynamics (IRA’s MFP in 2027; U.S. price agreements for Medicare access; semaglutide patent expirations in some Int’l markets in 2026) add near-term margin pressure but may broaden access. Overall, Novo remains a top-two GLP-1 franchise globally, but near-term share, pricing, and governance execution are the swing factors. Risks: (i) Lilly’s pipeline (retatrutide/orforglipron) and capacity ramp; (ii) compounding erosion and device bottlenecks; (iii) pricing/coverage pressure; (iv) governance turbulence (foundation-driven board reset); (v) pipeline readout risk.

Stock Performance

Price $49.35 is below the 50-day ($53.06) and 200-day ($63.76) moving averages; shares are down ~-54.6% YoY and ~-56% from the 52-week high ($112.52), and ~+14.6% above the 52-week low ($43.08). 10-day average volume (23.1M) exceeds 3-month average (16.6M), reflecting elevated activity during the guidance reset and governance changes. The stock is in a downtrend with no current O’Neil-style buy point; it needs to build a new base and reclaim key moving averages on rising volume.

CAN SLIM Analysis

Conclusion

From a strict O’Neil lens, NVO is not a buy: negative quarterly EPS growth, deep under its moving averages, and a relative laggard vs LLY. However, the franchise remains strategic with large end-markets, durable GLP-1 economics, tangible pipeline catalysts (Wegovy pill, comorbidity labels, CagriSema/amycretin), and mid-teens underlying OP growth ex one-offs. Valuation (~12–14x EPS) prices in substantial bad news. For growth investors, wait for a new base and breakout on volume after EPS re-accelerates or catalysts land. For long-term investors, HOLD pending proof of regained share and improving price/volume action.