William O'Neil
"Coats Group is making significant and intelligent strategic moves to reshape its business for higher growth and better margins, particularly with the transformative acquisition of OrthoLite and the divestiture of a low-margin business. This satisfies the 'N' in CAN SLIM. The company is an industry leader ('L') with strong institutional backing ('I'). However, it currently fails key O'Neil criteria for an immediate buy. Earnings growth ('C' and 'A') is more prospective than historical, the stock is not making new price highs, and the recent equity raise has increased share supply ('S'). The stock is building a base, but it is not breaking out. Therefore, it is not a buy at this moment. It should be placed on a watchlist. A proper buy point would emerge if the company begins to deliver on its projected earnings acceleration and the stock price breaks out of a constructive base on high volume, in a healthy market."
Overview
This report provides a comprehensive investment analysis of Coats Group plc (LSE:COA), a global manufacturer of industrial thread and footwear components. The analysis is conducted through the lens of the CAN SLIM investment methodology, as pioneered by William J. O'Neil, to determine the stock's potential for significant price appreciation.
Financial and Business Overview
Coats Group plc is the world's leading industrial thread manufacturer, with a history spanning over 250 years. The company operates in three main segments: Apparel, Footwear, and Performance Materials, serving a diverse range of industries. Financially, the company presents a mixed but improving picture. For the first half of 2025, revenue was flat at $705 million, but adjusted EBIT grew 5% to $140 million, and the adjusted EBIT margin improved to 19.8%, within the company's target range. The company demonstrates strong profitability with a Return on Equity (ROE) of 19.9%. A key strategic move is the recent divestiture of its low-margin US Yarns business, a positive step toward improving overall portfolio quality and margins. However, the balance sheet shows considerable leverage with a Debt-to-Equity ratio of 1.63, and while the dividend (yielding ~2.9%) is covered by earnings, it is not well covered by free cash flow, indicating a potential strain on cash resources. Forecasted EPS for the forward year is projected to double the trailing twelve months figure, indicating analyst optimism about future profitability.
Market Position & Competitive Advantages
Coats is an undisputed leader in its core markets. It holds a 23% market share in apparel and footwear thread, making it more than twice the size of its nearest competitor. This scale, combined with a vast global footprint across 50 countries, provides a significant competitive advantage in serving large, global brands. The company is also a leader in innovation and sustainability, with its recycled product lines like EcoRegen and EcoVerde showing strong growth (recycled thread revenue up 73% in H1 2025). The most significant strategic development is the recent definitive agreement to acquire OrthoLite for $770 million. OrthoLite is the global leader in branded footwear insoles with a 36% market share. This transformative acquisition will establish Coats as a 'super tier 2' supplier in footwear components, deepening its integration with major footwear brands and expanding it into the high-growth insole segment. However, risks are present. The company faces macroeconomic headwinds, including potential demand softening due to US-led trade tariffs which have created 'elevated uncertainty.' The large, debt-and-equity-funded acquisition of OrthoLite introduces integration risk and has led to shareholder dilution. Furthermore, some analysts project Coats' revenue growth will lag the broader industry, a point of concern for future market share.
Stock Performance
The stock's performance has been lackluster over the past year, trading down approximately 20-23% from its 52-week high of 103 GBp. This shows the stock has been a laggard compared to the broader market. More recently, the stock has shown signs of building a base, with price crossing above its 50-day moving average and trading volume picking up. However, it remains significantly below its prior highs, indicating it is not currently in a technical uptrend or breakout phase.
CAN SLIM Analysis
Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth:
Coats reported H1 2025 adjusted basic EPS of 4.7 cents, a 4% increase from 4.5 cents in H1 2024. While this is positive growth, it falls short of the powerful 25-50% (or higher) quarterly increases typically seen in leading stocks before a major price advance. The growth is modest, reflecting a challenging macro environment, though margin expansion is a positive sign.
Annual Earnings Increases:
This criterion is mixed. The company has a strong trailing ROE of 19.9%. Analyst consensus forecasts are bullish, with forward EPS expected to be double the trailing EPS, and Simply Wall St noting a forecasted annual earnings growth of over 29%. This suggests significant future profit acceleration. However, historical annual growth has not been consistently strong, and analysts recently made a slight downward revision to full-year 2025 EPS forecasts. A great stock should have a track record of at least three to five years of significant annual earnings growth, which is not clearly evident here.
New Products, Management, or Price Highs:
This is the strongest element for Coats. - **New Products/Strategy:** The acquisition of OrthoLite is a game-changing 'New' factor. It transforms the company's growth profile, expands it into the high-growth, high-margin branded insole market, and creates a 'super tier 2' supplier. The concurrent divestment of the low-margin US Yarns business sharpens the company's focus on profitable growth. The 73% revenue growth in 100% recycled thread products also demonstrates successful innovation. - **New Management:** CEO David Paja is relatively new, and this major strategic reshaping is occurring under his leadership. Strong insider conviction was shown when he recently purchased 200,000 shares. - **New Price Highs:** This is the most significant failure of the CAN SLIM model for Coats. The stock is trading approximately 20% below its 52-week high, not breaking out from a sound price base. Great stocks make new highs.
Supply and Demand:
The laws of supply and demand are currently a headwind. To fund the OrthoLite acquisition, the company is undertaking an equity placing of up to 19.99% of its share capital. This significantly increases the supply of shares on the market, causing shareholder dilution. While the reason for the capital raise is strategic, a large increase in the 'float' can restrain price appreciation in the short term. On the demand side, recent insider buying from the CEO is a positive signal.
Leader or Laggard:
Coats is an industry leader but a stock price laggard. It dominates the industrial thread market and, with the OrthoLite acquisition, will become a powerhouse in footwear components. Its ROE of 19.9% is characteristic of a leader. However, its stock has underperformed the market significantly over the past year, making it a laggard in terms of price performance. O'Neil's method favors leading stocks in leading industries.
Institutional Sponsorship:
The stock has strong institutional sponsorship, with 88.8% of shares owned by institutions. This indicates confidence from professional money managers. Recent analyst reports from reputable firms like Berenberg Bank and Royal Bank of Canada carry 'Buy' ratings, further affirming the quality of institutional interest.
Market Direction:
An investor should only buy stocks in a confirmed market uptrend. Coats operates in the Consumer Cyclical sector, which is sensitive to economic conditions. With current market uncertainty fueled by tariff discussions and potential for softening demand, the general market direction is not clearly bullish. It would be prudent to wait for a clear 'green light' from the overall market before committing capital.
Conclusion
Coats Group is making significant and intelligent strategic moves to reshape its business for higher growth and better margins, particularly with the transformative acquisition of OrthoLite and the divestiture of a low-margin business. This satisfies the 'N' in CAN SLIM. The company is an industry leader ('L') with strong institutional backing ('I'). However, it currently fails key O'Neil criteria for an immediate buy. Earnings growth ('C' and 'A') is more prospective than historical, the stock is not making new price highs, and the recent equity raise has increased share supply ('S'). The stock is building a base, but it is not breaking out. Therefore, it is not a buy at this moment. It should be placed on a watchlist. A proper buy point would emerge if the company begins to deliver on its projected earnings acceleration and the stock price breaks out of a constructive base on high volume, in a healthy market.
Research Sources (18 found)
Coats Group (LON:COA) Statistics & Valuation Metrics
Published: 9/19/2025
Analysts Have Made A Financial Statement On Coats ...
Published: 7/19/2025
Coats Group (LSE:COA) - Stock Analysis
Published: 6/29/2025
Coats Group (LSE:COA) Dividend Yield, History and Growth - Simply Wall St
Published: 7/1/2025
Coats 2025 May Trading Update
Published: 5/21/2025
2025 Half Year Results
Published: 7/16/2025
Coats 2025 May Trading Update | Coats Group plc
Published: 5/21/2025
Coats® EcoRegen™ | Coats
Published: 4/5/2025
Coats Group To Exit Performance Materials Division's US Yarns Business In Kings Mountain, NC
Published: 4/3/2025
UK's Coats Group to buy footwear insole maker OrthoLite ...
Published: 7/16/2025
Coats acquires OrthoLite
Published: 7/16/2025
Coats Group to Buy OrthoLite for $770 Million
Published: 7/16/2025
Acquisition - Retail Offer Launch | Company Announcement
Published: 7/16/2025
Coats Group CEO Acquires Significant Shareholding
Published: 9/10/2025
Coats Group PLC (COA.L): A 268-Year Legacy In Textile ...
Published: 9/10/2025
Coats Group (LON:COA) Stock Price Crosses Above Fifty ...
Published: 9/15/2025
European Undervalued Small Caps With Insider Action To ...
Published: 7/24/2025
Coats Group Plc Share Price (COA)
Published: 9/9/2025
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