William O'Neil
"In O’Neil terms, CRWV exhibits powerful N and leadership elements with exceptional sales growth, product cadence, and marquee partnerships, but it fails the core C and A tests as GAAP EPS remains negative and annual earnings lack an upward trend. Balance-sheet leverage, high interest costs, negative working capital, and concentration/execution risks argue for disciplined timing. For CAN SLIM investors, the higher-probability setup is to wait for: 1) accelerating EPS progress toward break-even and profitability; 2) confirmation of customer diversification and sustained backlog-to-revenue conversion; 3) evidence of funding at improving terms; 4) a proper base and breakout to new highs on volume materially above average. Tactically, the stock is above its 50- and 200-day moving averages and has reclaimed prior resistance near 120; a high-volume breakout toward prior highs coupled with improving EPS would upgrade the rating. Until then, maintain a watchlist position and demand proof of earnings power before committing to a growth-style Buy."
Overview
An investment analysis of CoreWeave, Inc. (NASDAQ: CRWV) using William J. O’Neil’s CAN SLIM framework, focused on quantitative facts from company filings and reliable sources to assess risk-reward, timing, and leadership within the AI cloud infrastructure trend.
Financial and Business Overview
Business model: CoreWeave is an AI-focused hyperscale cloud provider delivering GPU-centric compute, storage, and networking optimized for model training and inference. It leases or builds data center capacity, procures NVIDIA GPU systems, and sells capacity via long-term contracts and on-demand usage. Q1-2025 results (company IR): revenue 981.6M, up 420% YoY; GAAP operating loss -27.5M (-3% margin) due to elevated technology and infrastructure scale-up and IPO-related SBC; net loss -314.6M (-32% margin); Adjusted EBITDA 606.1M (62% margin). Interest expense was high at 263.8M, reflecting heavy leverage. Backlog: 25.9B at Mar 31, 2025; subsequent media reports cite ~30.1B after Q2. Q2-2025 revenue cited in multiple reports at ~1.21B, up ~207% YoY. Balance sheet (3/31/25): total assets 21.86B; current assets 3.10B vs current liabilities 7.13B (negative working capital). Debt: current 3.78B, non-current 4.94B (total ~8.7B), with sizable interest burden. Cash and cash equivalents 1.28B plus restricted cash 1.24B. Cash flow Q1: operating cash flow +61.2M; capex -1.41B; net financing inflows +1.85B including IPO proceeds. Liquidity and capital needs: capex is substantial to meet contracted power expansions and GPU deployments; management raised 1.4B net in the IPO and utilizes structured debt facilities; market commentary indicates the company may seek additional debt financing as it scales. Revenue visibility: multi-year deals including OpenAI (added ~11.2B to backlog) and other customers; NVIDIA agreement to purchase cloud services valued at 6.3B through 2032 provides utilization backstop on excess capacity.
Market Position & Competitive Advantages
Position: CoreWeave is a leading pure-play AI cloud, focused on rapid deployment of state-of-the-art NVIDIA GPU clusters, with a deep software stack (bare-metal Kubernetes, Slurm on Kubernetes, observability, AI object storage) purpose-built for AI. SemiAnalysis’s ClusterMAX rated CoreWeave the only Platinum-tier AI cloud for reliability and performance, underscoring technical leadership and real-world large-cluster operations. Strategic partnerships and wins: OpenAI, IBM, and NVIDIA, plus industry benchmarking leadership (MLPerf). Contract coverage and backlog provide revenue visibility, while the reported definitive agreement to acquire Core Scientific (pending close) would increase vertical integration, add data center and power capacity, and potentially improve economics and deployment speed. Risks: 1) Profitability mix; GAAP EPS is negative despite strong Adjusted EBITDA, driven by high depreciation and interest; 2) Leverage and interest-rate exposure; Q1 interest expense 263.8M; 3) Working capital deficit; 4) Execution risk in scaling 1.6 GW+ contracted power and converting backlog to cash; 5) Customer concentration risk, with external analyses indicating elevated dependence on a small number of large customers (e.g., Microsoft/OpenAI) that could renegotiate, insource, or slow spend; 6) Competitive response from hyperscalers (AWS, Azure, GCP) and nimble challengers (Nebius, Crusoe, Lambda), plus potential price pressure in GPU rentals as supply improves; 7) Supplier dependency on NVIDIA; while advantageous today (preferential access), the industry could shift to more in-house silicon at hyperscalers over time; 8) Potential dilution from future capital raises and ongoing SBC.
Stock Performance
Price 124.86 (9/21/2025, Yahoo Finance); market cap ~61.8B; TTM EPS -2.32; 2025 EPS consensus -1.52. 52-week range 33.52 to 187; shares are up ~212% over 12 months but ~33% below the 52-week high. Technicals: price above 50-day average 111.85 and 200-day average 102.98, reflecting improving momentum after a sharp post-IPO run and subsequent correction. Average 3-month volume ~21.8M shares (10-day ~35.4M), indicating strong trading interest. Analyst rating average: 2.6 (Hold). Recent catalysts lifting sentiment include reported Q2 revenue growth (~207% YoY), NVIDIA’s 6.3B service agreement, new venture initiatives, and continued product rollouts. Volatility is high; stock has had sharp swings around earnings and financing headlines.
CAN SLIM Analysis
Current Quarterly Earnings Per Share (EPS) Growth:
O’Neil looks for 25%+ EPS growth. CRWV fails this criterion on GAAP EPS. Q1-2025 net loss -314.6M; multiple reports indicate Q2 EPS missed as well. While sales grew triple-digits (Q1 +420% YoY; Q2 ~+207% YoY), GAAP EPS remains negative due to elevated depreciation, interest, and scaling costs. Adjusted EBITDA was strong (Q1 62% margin), but CAN SLIM emphasizes EPS, not EBITDA.
Annual Earnings Increases:
Also fails currently. TTM EPS -2.32; 2025 consensus EPS -1.52. The path to GAAP profitability is not yet visible in filings, given heavy capex and interest. Until annual EPS turns positive and grows, A is not met.
New Products, Management, or Price Highs:
Positive. Multiple New factors: general availability of GB200 NVL72 instances, AI Object Storage, SUNK (Slurm on Kubernetes), and platform enhancements; strategic OpenAI and IBM deals; NVIDIA 6.3B consumption pact through 2032; SemiAnalysis Platinum ClusterMAX recognition; launch of CoreWeave Ventures; potential acquisition of Core Scientific to vertically integrate. Price is not at new highs (currently ~33% below 52-week high), but product and partnership flow is strong.
Supply and Demand:
Mixed. Demand: backlog 25.9B at Q1 and reported ~30.1B thereafter; average volume is high with rising 10-day volume suggesting accumulation. Shares outstanding ~380.2M. Supply headwinds: IPO added shares; potential future equity raises and SBC may increase float; heavy leverage could necessitate additional capital. From a trading lens, recent moves above the 50- and 200-day averages suggest improving demand; from a corporate lens, financing needs could add supply.
Leader or Laggard:
Leaning Leader. Business leadership evidenced by Platinum ClusterMAX rating and early GB200 deployments. Stock relative performance: +212% over 52 weeks and trading above key moving averages, though volatile and below its high. In O’Neil terms, true leaders often hold near highs and break out on volume; CRWV is recovering but still off highs.
Institutional Sponsorship:
Generally Positive. Significant institutional engagement: IPO led by major banks; large financing partners (Blackstone, Magnetar, Blue Owl) and deep ecosystem ties (NVIDIA shareholder and partner). Sell-side coverage is broad (~22 analysts). Watch for high-quality institutional accumulation in 13F data as a confirming sign.
Market Direction:
Constructive but volatile. Major indices remain in a broader uptrend with AI leadership themes intact, though pullbacks around rates, geopolitics, and AI-cycle digestion are common. O’Neil stresses aligning with a confirmed uptrend; CRWV entries are higher probability during market uptrends and after clear base formations.
Conclusion
In O’Neil terms, CRWV exhibits powerful N and leadership elements with exceptional sales growth, product cadence, and marquee partnerships, but it fails the core C and A tests as GAAP EPS remains negative and annual earnings lack an upward trend. Balance-sheet leverage, high interest costs, negative working capital, and concentration/execution risks argue for disciplined timing. For CAN SLIM investors, the higher-probability setup is to wait for: 1) accelerating EPS progress toward break-even and profitability; 2) confirmation of customer diversification and sustained backlog-to-revenue conversion; 3) evidence of funding at improving terms; 4) a proper base and breakout to new highs on volume materially above average. Tactically, the stock is above its 50- and 200-day moving averages and has reclaimed prior resistance near 120; a high-volume breakout toward prior highs coupled with improving EPS would upgrade the rating. Until then, maintain a watchlist position and demand proof of earnings power before committing to a growth-style Buy.
Research Sources (23 found)
CoreWeave's Dramatic Surge Raises Eyebrows
Published: 9/20/2025
CoreWeave: Don't Miss The Rebound (Rating Upgrade)
Published: 9/18/2025
CoreWeave, Inc. (CRWV) Stock Price, News, Quote & History
Published: 8/4/2025
CoreWeave Reports Strong First Quarter 2025 Results
Published: 5/14/2025
CoreWeave Past Earnings Performance
Published: 6/29/2025
CoreWeave Says Nvidia Cloud Contract Valued at $6.3 Billion
Published: 9/15/2025
CoreWeave ranks as #1 AI Cloud, Backed by SemiAnalysis’s Platinum ClusterMAX™ Rating
Published: 4/10/2025
CoreWeave vs. Nebius: Which GPU Cloud Leader Will Dominate the AI Infrastructure Race?
Published: 5/28/2025
CoreWeave vs. Nebius: Which AI Infrastructure Stock Is the Better Buy?
Published: 5/28/2025
Nebius Group vs. CoreWeave: The AI Infrastructure Race Through the Lens of Valuation and Risk
Published: 6/6/2025
CoreWeave and Nvidia Made a Deal That Has Investors Questioning Artificial Intelligence (AI) Market Demand
Published: 9/16/2025
CoreWeave's Strategic Moves Signal Significant Optimism
Published: 9/16/2025
CoreWeave Ventures Surge: A New Era in AI?
Published: 9/16/2025
CoreWeave Stock Jumps: Buying Time?
Published: 9/16/2025
CoreWeave: I See Some Risks, But They Will Probably ...
Published: 9/6/2025
Coreweave: Risks Trump Opportunities
Published: 8/27/2025
Published: 6/4/2025
Published: 6/9/2025
CoreWeave: 4 Warnings From Nvidia's Q1 FY 2026 Earnings
Published: 6/3/2025
MLQ.ai | Stocks
Published: 5/10/2025
CoreWeave Q2: Mispriced... But A Breakout Is Coming
Published: 8/19/2025
CoreWeave's Stock Dive: What's Next?
Published: 8/14/2025
CoreWeave: Positioned To Ride The AI Trend, To The Very ...
Published: 8/7/2025
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